Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

235.03 – 165.51

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

329 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 54.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 406 ±9.8

9580Grizzly Gears

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX -10.71Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 103.98Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 141.76Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 486.9 ±9.9

6864GryphTech Robotics

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 0.15Rank 23Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 9.29Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 156.07Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9580, 4152, 10015

/ 100 compat

Projected

235 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9580, 4152, 10015

Auto

55.7 24%

Teleop

133.0 58%

Endgame

39.5 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6864, 7712, 11270

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6864, 7712, 11270

Auto

7.4 5%

Teleop

85.8 54%

Endgame

65.6 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.15 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score235pts

Blue projected score165.5pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.5
Score range: 131–270
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 509 vs event baseline 195.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

406Season APEX486.9

55.7Auto7.4

133Teleop85.8

39.5Endgame65.6

92Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	32
teleop	195	88
endgame	85	60
foul	0	0
total	329	180

Result

Final score

329 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 54.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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