Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

293.92 – 131.51

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

306 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 26.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 374.7 ±9.8

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 116.12Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 132.22Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 45.58Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 492.8 ±9.3

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX -2.95Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2935NACI Robotics

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 114.17Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 20.29Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2609, 10015, 2708

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.9 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2609, 10015, 2708

Auto

40.6 14%

Teleop

172.7 60%

Endgame

74.3 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7712, 2935, 2013

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7712, 2935, 2013

Auto

20.5 15%

Teleop

66.7 50%

Endgame

46.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.56 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score293.9pts

Blue projected score131.5pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 162.4
Score range: 96–330
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 478 vs event baseline 197.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

374.7Season APEX492.8

40.6Auto20.5

172.7Teleop66.7

74.3Endgame46.2

92Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	19
teleop	182	60
endgame	73	78
foul	0	15
total	306	172

Result

Final score

306 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 26.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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