Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

285.45 – 234.08

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

221 – 297

Prediction missed · off by 63.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 541 ±9.3

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 177.21Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9580Grizzly Gears

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 13.55Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 94.69Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 385.5 ±9.8

8729Sparkling H2O

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 32.32Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 47.29Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 154.47Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7520, 9580, 8884

/ 100 compat

Projected

285.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7520, 9580, 8884

Auto

55.4 20%

Teleop

172.7 61%

Endgame

53.8 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8729, 7480, 10015

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8729, 7480, 10015

Auto

41.0 18%

Teleop

121.1 54%

Endgame

63.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score285.5pts

Blue projected score234.1pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51.4
Score range: 197–322
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 518 vs event baseline 207.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

541Season APEX385.5

55.4Auto41

172.7Teleop121.1

53.8Endgame63.9

85Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	60
teleop	134	140
endgame	21	82
foul	0	15
total	221	297

Result

Final score

221 – 297

Prediction missed · off by 63.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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