Qualification · Qualification 18
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
108.36 – 0
85%15%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
63 – 84
Prediction missed · off by 64.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 224.2 ±11
Season APEX 109Event APEX 16.43Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 7.5Rank 23Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 84.43Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 239 ±10.4
Season APEX 108.5Event APEX 3.1Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 51.8Event APEX -28.56Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 78.7Event APEX -7.95Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2706, 6864, 8729
34
/ 100 compatProjected
108.4 pts
~2.3 RP (district)
Teams: 2706, 6864, 8729
Auto
13.2 12%
Teleop
41.2 36%
Endgame
58.6 52%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7476, 9580, 3543
4
/ 100 compatProjected
-33.4 pts
~0.9 RP (district)
Teams: 7476, 9580, 3543
Auto
11.0 0%
Teleop
-18.4 52%
Endgame
-28.3 79%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.31 · Blue 0.88
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score108.4pts
Blue projected score-33.4pts
Red win probability85%
Event bonus sample130alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 55%, blue 55%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 108.4
- Score range
- -35–143
- Upset likelihood
- 15%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
224.2Season APEX239
13.2Auto11
41.2Teleop-18.4
58.6Endgame-28.3
30Consistency72
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 22 | 22 |
| teleop | 22 | 34 |
| endgame | 19 | 13 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 63 | 84 |
Result
Final score
63 – 84
Prediction missed · off by 64.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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