Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.9 – 145.64

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 258.5 ±11.2

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 39.09Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6859Big Metal Lakers 6859- BML Robotics

Season APEX 14Event APEX 48.11Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX -8.3Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 321.1 ±10.4

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 66.82Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1334OT Devils

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX -4.47Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1305Ice Cubed

Season APEX 161Event APEX 83.29Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9589, 6859, 7712

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9589, 6859, 7712

Auto

5.4 8%

Teleop

36.2 55%

Endgame

24.3 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2708, 1334, 1305

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2708, 1334, 1305

Auto

15.1 11%

Teleop

67.6 47%

Endgame

60.6 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.9pts

Blue projected score145.6pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.7
Score range: 43–182
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 185 vs event baseline 199.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

258.5Season APEX321.1

5.4Auto15.1

36.2Teleop67.6

24.3Endgame60.6

71Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	42
teleop	39	55
endgame	0	39
foul	0	0
total	49	136

Result

Final score

49 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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