Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

232.82 – 303.68

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

280 – 311

Prediction correct · off by 27.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 518.7 ±9.3

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 124.92Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5596Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX -8.78Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 116.68Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 384.4 ±9.8

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 125.14Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 116.96Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 61.58Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10015, 5596, 7520

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10015, 5596, 7520

Auto

12.4 6%

Teleop

142.9 64%

Endgame

67.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 610, 2609, 5036

/ 100 compat

Projected

303.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 610, 2609, 5036

Auto

40.3 13%

Teleop

194.2 64%

Endgame

68.8 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score232.8pts

Blue projected score303.7pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -70.9
Score range: 198–339
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 591 vs event baseline 193.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

518.7Season APEX384.4

12.4Auto40.3

142.9Teleop194.2

67.4Endgame68.8

157Consistency121

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	40
teleop	145	189
endgame	70	82
foul	15	0
total	280	311

Result

Final score

280 – 311

Prediction correct · off by 27.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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