Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

306.28 – 158.25

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

349 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 86.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 599.7 ±9.8

2935NACI Robotics

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 115.52Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 121.44Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8729Sparkling H2O

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 69.32Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 443.5 ±10.5

6864GryphTech Robotics

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX -14.13Rank 23Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 62.42Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 109.96Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2935, 9785, 8729

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2935, 9785, 8729

Auto

34.2 11%

Teleop

172.2 56%

Endgame

100.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6864, 4152, 8884

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6864, 4152, 8884

Auto

66.2 43%

Teleop

77.8 51%

Endgame

8.3 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.41 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score306.3pts

Blue projected score158.3pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 148
Score range: 125–339
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 637 vs event baseline 184.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

599.7Season APEX443.5

34.2Auto66.2

172.2Teleop77.8

100.1Endgame8.3

42Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	59
teleop	158	173
endgame	140	56
foul	0	0
total	349	288

Result

Final score

349 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 86.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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