Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

163.41 – 166.75

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

153 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 50.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 375.1 ±9.8

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 17.25Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 142.44Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9580Grizzly Gears

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 3.72Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 383.1 ±9.8

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 36.04Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7476Spongebotics

Season APEX 108.5Event APEX 27.01Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1305Ice Cubed

Season APEX 161Event APEX 103.7Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9589, 11270, 9580

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9589, 11270, 9580

Auto

14.0 8%

Teleop

110.2 67%

Endgame

40.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2013, 7476, 1305

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2013, 7476, 1305

Auto

12.3 8%

Teleop

98.4 61%

Endgame

50.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score163.4pts

Blue projected score166.8pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.3
Score range: 129–201
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 230 vs event baseline 189.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

375.1Season APEX383.1

14Auto12.3

110.2Teleop98.4

40.6Endgame50.8

57Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	39
teleop	93	23
endgame	43	15
foul	0	0
total	153	77

Result

Final score

153 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 50.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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