Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

191.4 – 37.13

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

106 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 52.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 366.7 ±9.8

7712ACCN UMOJA

Season APEX 183Event APEX 16.95Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2708Lake Effect Robotics

Season APEX 73.2Event APEX 84.05Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7480Machine Mavericks

Season APEX 110.5Event APEX 90.4Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 201.7 ±11.7

2706Merge Robotics

Season APEX 109Event APEX 15.88Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3543C4 Robotics

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX -16.43Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6859Big Metal Lakers 6859- BML Robotics

Season APEX 14Event APEX 37.68Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7712, 2708, 7480

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7712, 2708, 7480

Auto

24.6 14%

Teleop

92.4 52%

Endgame

60.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2706, 3543, 6859

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2706, 3543, 6859

Auto

19.0 65%

Teleop

1.1 4%

Endgame

9.0 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.51 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score191.4pts

Blue projected score37.1pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 154.3
Score range: 1–227
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 163 vs event baseline 199.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

366.7Season APEX201.7

24.6Auto19

92.4Teleop1.1

60Endgame9

0Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	19
teleop	62	17
endgame	23	21
foul	0	0
total	106	57

Result

Final score

106 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 52.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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