Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

164.48 – 198.8

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

275 – 247

Prediction missed · off by 79.4 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 418 ±10.4

4152Hoya Robotics

Season APEX 152.3Event APEX 31.87Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2935NACI Robotics

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 95.04Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5036The Robo Devils

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 37.57Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 574.4 ±9.9

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 97.28Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6864GryphTech Robotics

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX -19.68Rank 23Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 121.2Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4152, 2935, 5036

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4152, 2935, 5036

Auto

18.0 11%

Teleop

105.8 66%

Endgame

37.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9785, 6864, 10015

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9785, 6864, 10015

Auto

23.6 12%

Teleop

102.3 54%

Endgame

65.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score164.5pts

Blue projected score198.8pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.3
Score range: 129–234
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 522 vs event baseline 193.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

418Season APEX574.4

18Auto23.6

105.8Teleop102.3

37.6Endgame65

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	23
teleop	149	137
endgame	62	87
foul	0	0
total	275	247

Result

Final score

275 – 247

Prediction missed · off by 79.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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