Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

242.03 – 224.62

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

387 – 300

Prediction correct · off by 110.2 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 500.7 ±9.8

1305Ice Cubed

Season APEX 161Event APEX 68.04Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 69.55Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 104.44Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 597.8 ±9.3

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 117.14Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1334OT Devils

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 7.56Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 99.92Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1305, 7520, 2609

/ 100 compat

Projected

242 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1305, 7520, 2609

Auto

36.2 15%

Teleop

163.4 67%

Endgame

44.3 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11270, 1334, 8884

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11270, 1334, 8884

Auto

44.5 21%

Teleop

109.9 51%

Endgame

59.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score242pts

Blue projected score224.6pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.4
Score range: 193–274
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 687 vs event baseline 178.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

500.7Season APEX597.8

36.2Auto44.5

163.4Teleop109.9

44.3Endgame59.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	66
teleop	218	194
endgame	146	40
foul	0	0
total	387	300

Result

Final score

387 – 300

Prediction correct · off by 110.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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