Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

94.9 – 146.47

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 248

Prediction correct · off by 76.2 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 299.3 ±9.8

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 76.17Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5596Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX -22.22Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2706Merge Robotics

Season APEX 109Event APEX 40.95Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 396.9 ±9.8

7476Spongebotics

Season APEX 108.5Event APEX 31.05Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8729Sparkling H2O

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 37.01Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 78.41Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2013, 5596, 2706

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2013, 5596, 2706

Auto

19.0 20%

Teleop

56.8 60%

Endgame

18.5 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7476, 8729, 610

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7476, 8729, 610

Auto

28.3 20%

Teleop

69.0 50%

Endgame

41.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score94.9pts

Blue projected score146.5pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.6
Score range: 62–179
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 292 vs event baseline 181.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

299.3Season APEX396.9

19Auto28.3

56.8Teleop69

18.5Endgame41.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	35
teleop	12	147
endgame	19	66
foul	0	0
total	44	248

Result

Final score

44 – 248

Prediction correct · off by 76.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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