Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

237.23 – 40.33

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

276 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 23.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 491.5 ±9.8

9589Arcade Robotics

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 20.48Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 128.81Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 87.94Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.2 ±11.7

7476Spongebotics

Season APEX 108.5Event APEX 34.21Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5596Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 11.1Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6859Big Metal Lakers 6859- BML Robotics

Season APEX 14Event APEX -4.98Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9589, 9785, 2609

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9589, 9785, 2609

Auto

32.4 14%

Teleop

137.6 59%

Endgame

65.2 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7476, 5596, 6859

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7476, 5596, 6859

Auto

20.3 57%

Teleop

18.1 51%

Endgame

-3.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.51 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score237.2pts

Blue projected score40.3pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 196.9
Score range: 3–274
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 324 vs event baseline 207.8.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

491.5Season APEX199.2

32.4Auto20.3

137.6Teleop18.1

65.2Endgame-3

26Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	10
teleop	193	2
endgame	57	6
foul	0	30
total	276	48

Result

Final score

276 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 23.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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