Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

348.8 – 305.53

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

241 – 358

Prediction missed · off by 80.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 459.3 ±9.9

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 160.19Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6864GryphTech Robotics

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 22.32Rank 23Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 166.29Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 705.8 ±8.7

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 19.76Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 126.77Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 159Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10015, 6864, 610

/ 100 compat

Projected

348.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10015, 6864, 610

Auto

54.7 16%

Teleop

193.4 56%

Endgame

95.9 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2013, 9785, 11270

/ 100 compat

Projected

305.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2013, 9785, 11270

Auto

46.3 15%

Teleop

166.0 55%

Endgame

88.0 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score348.8pts

Blue projected score305.5pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.3
Score range: 269–386
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 599 vs event baseline 205.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

459.3Season APEX705.8

54.7Auto46.3

193.4Teleop166

95.9Endgame88

49Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	50
teleop	120	227
endgame	69	76
foul	5	5
total	241	358

Result

Final score

241 – 358

Prediction missed · off by 80.1 pts

Match videos

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