Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

168.85 – 123.53

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

239 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 38.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 355.2 ±11

6135Arctos

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 7.55Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6978QuickStrike Niagara

Season APEX 120Event APEX 67.53Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 93.77Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 264.5 ±11.7

8850Ed Bears

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 4.02Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 53.72Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2852DM Robotics

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 65.79Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6135, 6978, 9098

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6135, 6978, 9098

Auto

32.8 21%

Teleop

89.8 58%

Endgame

33.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8850, 4917, 2852

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8850, 4917, 2852

Auto

19.8 17%

Teleop

62.5 54%

Endgame

32.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score168.9pts

Blue projected score123.5pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.3
Score range: 87–206
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 356 vs event baseline 207.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

355.2Season APEX264.5

32.8Auto19.8

89.8Teleop62.5

33Endgame32.4

22Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	25
teleop	122	71
endgame	66	21
foul	5	0
total	239	117

Result

Final score

239 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 38.3 pts

Match videos

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