Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

373.28 – 274.09

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

407 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 75.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 679.1 ±8.8

9575Silver Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 35.05Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 180.96Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 157.27Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 414.2 ±10.5

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 119.92Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11362RoBumpers

Season APEX 18.5Event APEX -7.84Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 162.01Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9575, 1325, 5406

/ 100 compat

Projected

373.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9575, 1325, 5406

Auto

77.1 21%

Teleop

203.3 55%

Endgame

91.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7902, 11362, 2200

/ 100 compat

Projected

274.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7902, 11362, 2200

Auto

55.3 21%

Teleop

159.1 60%

Endgame

51.9 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.32 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score373.3pts

Blue projected score274.1pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 99.2
Score range: 237–410
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 563 vs event baseline 206.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

679.1Season APEX414.2

77.1Auto55.3

203.3Teleop159.1

91.4Endgame51.9

0Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	101	71
teleop	215	47
endgame	76	23
foul	15	15
total	407	156

Result

Final score

407 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 75.9 pts

Match videos

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