Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

112.93 – 120.44

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

104 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 11.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 366 ±9.8

10554Team VIPER

Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 49.88Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 48.74Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 14.31Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 264.5 ±11.7

8850Ed Bears

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 2.84Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 52.32Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2852DM Robotics

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 65.28Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10554, 1229, 4327

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10554, 1229, 4327

Auto

24.6 22%

Teleop

61.6 55%

Endgame

25.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8850, 4917, 2852

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8850, 4917, 2852

Auto

17.2 15%

Teleop

60.8 54%

Endgame

35.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112.9pts

Blue projected score120.4pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.5
Score range: 76–157
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 239 vs event baseline 205.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

366Season APEX264.5

24.6Auto17.2

61.6Teleop60.8

25.6Endgame35.2

0Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	36
teleop	24	63
endgame	54	16
foul	5	20
total	104	135

Result

Final score

104 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 11.7 pts

Match videos

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