Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

97.93 – 235.36

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 25.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 278.7 ±10.4

7200Banting Robotics

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 38.3Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 19.75Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6632Northview Robotics

Season APEX 88.7Event APEX 39.88Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 410.1 ±9.8

9659Vanier Vikings

Season APEX 82Event APEX 33.84Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 127.85Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 73.67Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7200, 4308, 6632

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7200, 4308, 6632

Auto

22.8 27%

Teleop

37.8 44%

Endgame

24.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9659, 4907, 5032

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9659, 4907, 5032

Auto

45.4 20%

Teleop

120.2 53%

Endgame

61.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score97.9pts

Blue projected score235.4pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -137.4
Score range: 61–272
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 329 vs event baseline 206.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

278.7Season APEX410.1

22.8Auto45.4

37.8Teleop120.2

24.4Endgame61.2

0Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	34
teleop	25	119
endgame	19	61
foul	15	45
total	70	259

Result

Final score

70 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 25.8 pts

Match videos

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