Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

279.46 – 129.25

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

244 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 42.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 414.2 ±10.5

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 121.57Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11362RoBumpers

Season APEX 18.5Event APEX -5.38Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 163.27Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 264.5 ±11.7

8850Ed Bears

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 5.92Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 55.2Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2852DM Robotics

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 68.13Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7902, 11362, 2200

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7902, 11362, 2200

Auto

49.8 19%

Teleop

162.1 60%

Endgame

57.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8850, 4917, 2852

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8850, 4917, 2852

Auto

16.6 13%

Teleop

67.0 54%

Endgame

39.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.28 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score279.5pts

Blue projected score129.3pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 150.2
Score range: 92–316
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 324 vs event baseline 207.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

414.2Season APEX264.5

49.8Auto16.6

162.1Teleop67

57.1Endgame39.6

20Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	20
teleop	135	31
endgame	31	14
foul	0	15
total	244	80

Result

Final score

244 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 42.4 pts

Match videos

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