Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

361.08 – 122.74

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

407 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 43.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 679.1 ±8.8

9575Silver Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 31.02Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 176.79Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 153.27Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 366 ±9.8

10554Team VIPER

Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 52.59Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 52.26Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 17.89Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9575, 1325, 5406

/ 100 compat

Projected

361.1 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9575, 1325, 5406

Auto

79.0 22%

Teleop

190.9 53%

Endgame

92.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10554, 1229, 4327

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10554, 1229, 4327

Auto

25.6 21%

Teleop

67.5 55%

Endgame

28.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.67 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score361.1pts

Blue projected score122.7pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 238.3
Score range: 86–398
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 488 vs event baseline 206.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

679.1Season APEX366

79Auto25.6

190.9Teleop67.5

92.3Endgame28.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	21
teleop	235	43
endgame	85	12
foul	15	5
total	407	81

Result

Final score

407 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 43.8 pts

Match videos

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