Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
360.35 – 255.62
79%21%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
287 – 336
Prediction missed · off by 76.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 679.1 ±8.8
Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 31.39Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 176.56Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 152.4Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 414.2 ±10.5
Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 114.14Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 18.5Event APEX -13.99Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 262Event APEX 155.47Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9575, 1325, 5406
83
/ 100 compatProjected
360.4 pts
~2.3 RP (district)
Teams: 9575, 1325, 5406
Auto
79.2 22%
Teleop
192.0 54%
Endgame
84.7 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 21%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7902, 11362, 2200
70
/ 100 compatProjected
255.6 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 7902, 11362, 2200
Auto
63.0 26%
Teleop
137.1 56%
Endgame
43.2 18%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 21%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.34 · Blue 0.97
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score360.4pts
Blue projected score255.6pts
Red win probability79%
Event bonus sample150alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 53%, blue 45%
Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 7%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 104.7
- Score range
- 218–398
- Upset likelihood
- 21%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
679.1Season APEX414.2
79.2Auto63
192Teleop137.1
84.7Endgame43.2
4Consistency15
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 91 | 70 |
| teleop | 70 | 173 |
| endgame | 106 | 68 |
| foul | 20 | 25 |
| total | 287 | 336 |
Result
Final score
287 – 336
Prediction missed · off by 76.9 pts
Match videos
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