Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

560.74 – 379.41

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

648 – 255

Prediction correct · off by 105.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 961.9 ±9.3

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 235.83Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9062Critical Circuits

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 18.42Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 306.49Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 679.1 ±8.8

9575Silver Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 37.91Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 182.77Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 158.73Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1114, 9062, 2056

/ 100 compat

Projected

560.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1114, 9062, 2056

Auto

119.6 22%

Teleop

325.5 59%

Endgame

107.2 19%

Strengths

· 2056 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9575, 1325, 5406

/ 100 compat

Projected

379.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9575, 1325, 5406

Auto

80.5 21%

Teleop

206.1 55%

Endgame

89.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.49 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score560.7pts

Blue projected score379.4pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 181.3
Score range: 342–598
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 903 vs event baseline 207.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

961.9Season APEX679.1

119.6Auto80.5

325.5Teleop206.1

107.2Endgame89.1

1Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	123	72
teleop	377	111
endgame	133	62
foul	15	10
total	648	255

Result

Final score

648 – 255

Prediction correct · off by 105.8 pts

Match videos

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