Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

254.14 – 239.47

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

246 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 27.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 414.2 ±10.5

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 113.34Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11362RoBumpers

Season APEX 18.5Event APEX -14.56Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 155.36Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 410.1 ±9.8

9659Vanier Vikings

Season APEX 82Event APEX 35.22Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 129.43Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 74.82Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7902, 11362, 2200

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7902, 11362, 2200

Auto

57.4 23%

Teleop

140.6 57%

Endgame

47.1 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9659, 4907, 5032

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9659, 4907, 5032

Auto

43.0 19%

Teleop

121.4 54%

Endgame

60.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score254.1pts

Blue projected score239.5pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.7
Score range: 202–291
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 438 vs event baseline 207.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

414.2Season APEX410.1

57.4Auto43

140.6Teleop121.4

47.1Endgame60.7

19Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	29
teleop	123	71
endgame	24	92
foul	10	0
total	246	192

Result

Final score

246 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 27.8 pts

Match videos

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