Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

90.3 – 155.34

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

24 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 50 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 215.8 ±12.2

3560MechaWolves

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX -2.58Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9659Vanier Vikings

Season APEX 82Event APEX 93.62Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6162Cap Alpaca

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX -0.74Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 491 ±9.9

11362RoBumpers

Season APEX 18.5Event APEX 48.67Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 72Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 34.67Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3560, 9659, 6162

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3560, 9659, 6162

Auto

12.7 14%

Teleop

40.2 44%

Endgame

38.6 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11362, 2200, 4907

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11362, 2200, 4907

Auto

34.6 25%

Teleop

97.8 70%

Endgame

7.6 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score90.3pts

Blue projected score155.3pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -65
Score range: 49–196
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 213 vs event baseline 227.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

215.8Season APEX491

12.7Auto34.6

40.2Teleop97.8

38.6Endgame7.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	40
teleop	6	128
endgame	0	6
foul	5	15
total	24	189

Result

Final score

24 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 50 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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