Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

137.09 – 108.95

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

424 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 162.4 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 629.4 ±9.8

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 100.57Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 34.86Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6632Northview Robotics

Season APEX 88.7Event APEX 1.66Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261 ±10.4

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 34.86Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX -4.27Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9575Silver Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 78.36Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1114, 5032, 6632

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1114, 5032, 6632

Auto

27.2 20%

Teleop

81.4 60%

Endgame

28.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1229, 4308, 9575

/ 100 compat

Projected

109 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1229, 4308, 9575

Auto

16.9 16%

Teleop

55.4 52%

Endgame

34.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score137.1pts

Blue projected score109pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.1
Score range: 71–175
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 495 vs event baseline 209.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

629.4Season APEX261

27.2Auto16.9

81.4Teleop55.4

28Endgame34.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	14
teleop	254	23
endgame	91	34
foul	0	0
total	424	71

Result

Final score

424 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 162.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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