Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

16.08 – 211.67

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 36.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 161 ±12.7

6162Cap Alpaca

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX -10.17Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11428Horns of Steel

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 33.51Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11362RoBumpers

Season APEX 18.5Event APEX -7.26Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 421 ±11.2

8764Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 24.25Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10167Jeunes Sans Frontières

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 29.22Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 158.2Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6162, 11428, 11362

/ 100 compat

Projected

16.1 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6162, 11428, 11362

Auto

15.2 100%

Teleop

-10.4 0%

Endgame

-2.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8764, 10167, 5406

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.7 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8764, 10167, 5406

Auto

39.9 19%

Teleop

110.0 53%

Endgame

55.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.63 · Blue 2.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score16.1pts

Blue projected score211.7pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -195.6
Score range: -21–249
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 207 vs event baseline 204.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

161Season APEX421

15.2Auto39.9

-10.4Teleop110

-2Endgame55.8

19Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	42
teleop	14	88
endgame	10	35
foul	0	0
total	42	165

Result

Final score

42 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 36.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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