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Experimental AI-assisted analytics, predictions and ratings are estimates, not official results.
FRCinsights
ONT District McMaster University Event

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction
Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

193.08 – 160.7

60%40%
Actual result
Winner

Red alliance

Final score

208 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 26.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 542.3 ±9.3
9062Critical Circuits
B
Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 28.43Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
5406Celt-X
A
Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 149.13Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
4327Q Branch
C
Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 15.52Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 240.4 ±11
7902Markham FireBirds
C
Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 123.82Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
6135Arctos
D
Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 13.2Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
10167Jeunes Sans Frontières
D
Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 23.68Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9062, 5406, 4327
60
/ 100 compat
Projected
193.1 pts
~1.8 RP (district)
Teams: 9062, 5406, 4327
Auto
47.6 25%
Teleop
96.7 50%
Endgame
47.6 25%
Strengths
  • · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 50%
Supercharged: 8%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7902, 6135, 10167
51
/ 100 compat
Projected
160.7 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 7902, 6135, 10167
Auto
22.0 15%
Teleop
81.5 55%
Endgame
45.6 31%
Strengths
  • · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
  • · Thin autonomous coverage
  • · Below-average combined firepower
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 50%
Supercharged: 8%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.38
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score193.1pts
Blue projected score160.7pts
Red win probability60%
Event bonus sample150alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 50%, blue 51%
Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 5%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
  • District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
  • Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
  • Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin
32.4
Score range
121–233
Upset likelihood
40%
Data cutoff
2026-08-15
Model
apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 406 vs event baseline 220.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

542.3Season APEX240.4
47.6Auto22
96.7Teleop81.5
47.6Endgame45.6
11Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

PhaseRedBlue
auto5217
teleop106115
endgame5056
foul010
total208198

Result

Final score

208 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 26.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree

Match videos

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