Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

523.84 – 358.89

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

608 – 385

Prediction correct · off by 55.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 837.7 ±8.8

6978QuickStrike Niagara

Season APEX 120Event APEX 56.96Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 171.32Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 295.56Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 684.8 ±10.7

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 125.95Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 228.16Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8850Ed Bears

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 4.78Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6978, 1325, 2056

/ 100 compat

Projected

523.8 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6978, 1325, 2056

Auto

103.1 20%

Teleop

294.3 57%

Endgame

123.4 24%

Strengths

· 2056 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4907, 1114, 8850

/ 100 compat

Projected

358.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4907, 1114, 8850

Auto

73.3 21%

Teleop

213.8 61%

Endgame

62.3 18%

Strengths

· 1114 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.64 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score523.8pts

Blue projected score358.9pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 165
Score range: 323–560
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 993 vs event baseline 199.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

837.7Season APEX684.8

103.1Auto73.3

294.3Teleop213.8

123.4Endgame62.3

60Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	158	35
teleop	346	226
endgame	89	114
foul	15	10
total	608	385

Result

Final score

608 – 385

Prediction correct · off by 55.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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