Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

155.71 – 221.1

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

110 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 308.8 ±11.7

7200Banting Robotics

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 43.58Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8764Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 26.93Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 85.2Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 451.4 ±11.2

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 161.28Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6978QuickStrike Niagara

Season APEX 120Event APEX 53.61Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8850Ed Bears

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 6.21Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7200, 8764, 5032

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7200, 8764, 5032

Auto

28.8 19%

Teleop

91.0 61%

Endgame

29.5 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5406, 6978, 8850

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5406, 6978, 8850

Auto

48.7 22%

Teleop

110.5 51%

Endgame

57.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score155.7pts

Blue projected score221.1pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -65.4
Score range: 119–258
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 316 vs event baseline 205.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

308.8Season APEX451.4

28.8Auto48.7

91Teleop110.5

29.5Endgame57.4

9Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	20
teleop	54	118
endgame	31	68
foul	5	0
total	110	206

Result

Final score

110 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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