Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

148.3 – 142.51

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

208 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 36.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 335.2 ±11

6135Arctos

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 0.27Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 102.15Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 45.88Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 345.1 ±11.2

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 24.26Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 125.44Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6162Cap Alpaca

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX -7.19Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6135, 9098, 1229

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6135, 9098, 1229

Auto

36.5 26%

Teleop

78.4 57%

Endgame

23.6 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4308, 4907, 6162

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4308, 4907, 6162

Auto

38.1 31%

Teleop

73.9 60%

Endgame

12.2 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score148.3pts

Blue projected score142.5pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.8
Score range: 106–185
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 338 vs event baseline 206.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

335.2Season APEX345.1

36.5Auto38.1

78.4Teleop73.9

23.6Endgame12.2

16Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	43
teleop	108	28
endgame	39	49
foul	25	10
total	208	130

Result

Final score

208 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 36.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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