Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

480.88 – 41.42

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

639 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 82.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 818.8 ±9.3

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 141.28Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 213.74Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 125.86Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 263 ±11.6

11002Montcalm Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX -5.02Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3560MechaWolves

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX -11.81Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10554Team VIPER

Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 58.25Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2200, 1114, 7902

/ 100 compat

Projected

480.9 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2200, 1114, 7902

Auto

94.3 20%

Teleop

279.4 60%

Endgame

90.1 19%

Strengths

· 1114 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11002, 3560, 10554

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.4 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11002, 3560, 10554

Auto

3.3 8%

Teleop

11.2 27%

Endgame

27.4 65%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.75 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score480.9pts

Blue projected score41.4pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 439.5
Score range: 4–518
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 688 vs event baseline 203.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

818.8Season APEX263

94.3Auto3.3

279.4Teleop11.2

90.1Endgame27.4

67Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	18
teleop	426	19
endgame	125	12
foul	10	0
total	639	49

Result

Final score

639 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 82.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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