Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

290.95 – 26.3

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

324 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 38.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 526.9 ±9.4

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 169.5Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2852DM Robotics

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 69.07Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 52.38Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.9 ±11

11362RoBumpers

Season APEX 18.5Event APEX -10.6Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9062Critical Circuits

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX -1.19Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6632Northview Robotics

Season APEX 88.7Event APEX 38.09Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1325, 2852, 4917

/ 100 compat

Projected

291 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1325, 2852, 4917

Auto

49.2 17%

Teleop

164.7 57%

Endgame

74.0 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11362, 9062, 6632

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.3 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11362, 9062, 6632

Auto

17.4 74%

Teleop

-0.9 0%

Endgame

7.0 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.63 · Blue 0.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score291pts

Blue projected score26.3pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 264.7
Score range: -11–328
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 395 vs event baseline 203.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

526.9Season APEX241.9

49.2Auto17.4

164.7Teleop-0.9

74Endgame7

41Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	8
teleop	164	24
endgame	97	29
foul	0	10
total	324	71

Result

Final score

324 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 38.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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