Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

101.93 – 68.04

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 122

Prediction missed · off by 59.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 242.4 ±12.8

8764Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 35.56Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8850Ed Bears

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 13.31Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7200Banting Robotics

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 53.06Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.3 ±12.2

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 84.66Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6162Cap Alpaca

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX -14Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6135Arctos

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX -2.62Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8764, 8850, 7200

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8764, 8850, 7200

Auto

24.5 25%

Teleop

56.7 57%

Endgame

18.4 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5032, 6162, 6135

/ 100 compat

Projected

68 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5032, 6162, 6135

Auto

18.2 33%

Teleop

35.8 64%

Endgame

1.7 3%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score101.9pts

Blue projected score68pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.9
Score range: 31–139
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 159 vs event baseline 205.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

242.4Season APEX219.3

24.5Auto18.2

56.7Teleop35.8

18.4Endgame1.7

0Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	19
teleop	7	58
endgame	6	30
foul	15	15
total	37	122

Result

Final score

37 – 122

Prediction missed · off by 59.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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