Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

257.93 – 234.02

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

255 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 10.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 486.5 ±10.5

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 98.27Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 127.17Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11428Horns of Steel

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 32.49Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 406.5 ±11.2

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 164.38Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8850Ed Bears

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 3.69Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2852DM Robotics

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 65.95Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9098, 4907, 11428

/ 100 compat

Projected

257.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9098, 4907, 11428

Auto

58.4 24%

Teleop

128.1 53%

Endgame

55.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2200, 8850, 2852

/ 100 compat

Projected

234 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2200, 8850, 2852

Auto

52.9 24%

Teleop

121.5 54%

Endgame

49.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score257.9pts

Blue projected score234pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.9
Score range: 194–298
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 507 vs event baseline 220.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

486.5Season APEX406.5

58.4Auto52.9

128.1Teleop121.5

55.7Endgame49

28Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	63
teleop	137	161
endgame	21	28
foul	45	0
total	255	252

Result

Final score

255 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 10.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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