Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

134.44 – 327.18

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

147 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 43.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 387.4 ±9.9

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 123.69Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 16.19Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11002Montcalm Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX -5.44Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 625.1 ±9.8

6978QuickStrike Niagara

Season APEX 120Event APEX 61.44Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9659Vanier Vikings

Season APEX 82Event APEX 44.23Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 221.51Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4907, 4327, 11002

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4907, 4327, 11002

Auto

28.7 22%

Teleop

79.9 60%

Endgame

24.6 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6978, 9659, 1114

/ 100 compat

Projected

327.2 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6978, 9659, 1114

Auto

51.6 16%

Teleop

204.3 63%

Endgame

68.9 21%

Strengths

· 1114 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score134.4pts

Blue projected score327.2pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -192.7
Score range: 97–364
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 399 vs event baseline 205.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

387.4Season APEX625.1

28.7Auto51.6

79.9Teleop204.3

24.6Endgame68.9

29Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	72
teleop	73	132
endgame	15	38
foul	10	10
total	147	252

Result

Final score

147 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 43.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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