Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

280.25 – 348.05

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

423 – 468

Prediction correct · off by 131.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 562.6 ±11.1

3560MechaWolves

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX -22.11Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11428Horns of Steel

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 25.57Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 276.79Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 693.8 ±8.8

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 153.83Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 157.01Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 37.21Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3560, 11428, 2056

/ 100 compat

Projected

280.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3560, 11428, 2056

Auto

69.7 26%

Teleop

152.9 56%

Endgame

50.4 18%

Strengths

· 2056 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5406, 1325, 1229

/ 100 compat

Projected

348.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5406, 1325, 1229

Auto

76.2 22%

Teleop

177.9 51%

Endgame

91.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score280.3pts

Blue projected score348.1pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.8
Score range: 244–384
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 891 vs event baseline 201.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

562.6Season APEX693.8

69.7Auto76.2

152.9Teleop177.9

50.4Endgame91.5

68Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	95
teleop	187	255
endgame	132	108
foul	25	10
total	423	468

Result

Final score

423 – 468

Prediction correct · off by 131.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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