Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

151.56 – 201.93

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

211 – 168

Prediction missed · off by 46.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 272.2 ±11

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 122.33Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 46.11Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11362RoBumpers

Season APEX 18.5Event APEX -16.88Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 394.9 ±10.4

10167Jeunes Sans Frontières

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 29.28Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10554Team VIPER

Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 62.05Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 110.6Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7902, 4917, 11362

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7902, 4917, 11362

Auto

23.2 17%

Teleop

86.0 63%

Endgame

28.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10167, 10554, 9098

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10167, 10554, 9098

Auto

37.3 19%

Teleop

109.1 55%

Endgame

52.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score151.6pts

Blue projected score201.9pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50.4
Score range: 116–238
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 379 vs event baseline 201.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

272.2Season APEX394.9

23.2Auto37.3

86Teleop109.1

28Endgame52.2

28Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	39
teleop	113	91
endgame	60	33
foul	5	5
total	211	168

Result

Final score

211 – 168

Prediction missed · off by 46.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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