Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

458.82 – 435.76

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

441 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 119.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 760 ±9.3

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 283Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 19.6Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 156.22Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 811.6 ±9.5

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 250.21Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 180.14Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3560MechaWolves

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 5.41Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2056, 4308, 5406

/ 100 compat

Projected

458.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2056, 4308, 5406

Auto

102.2 23%

Teleop

248.2 56%

Endgame

94.4 21%

Strengths

· 2056 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1114, 1325, 3560

/ 100 compat

Projected

435.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1114, 1325, 3560

Auto

91.8 21%

Teleop

255.6 58%

Endgame

94.6 21%

Strengths

· 1114 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score458.8pts

Blue projected score435.8pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.1
Score range: 400–495
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 655 vs event baseline 198.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

760Season APEX811.6

102.2Auto91.8

248.2Teleop255.6

94.4Endgame94.6

37Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	96	36
teleop	249	128
endgame	91	45
foul	5	5
total	441	214

Result

Final score

441 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 119.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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