Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

288.42 – 70.49

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

318 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 55 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 574.4 ±9.8

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 109.31Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 43.74Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 135.37Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 246.4 ±12.2

6978QuickStrike Niagara

Season APEX 120Event APEX 57.94Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8764Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 25.86Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11002Montcalm Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX -13.31Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9098, 4917, 2200

/ 100 compat

Projected

288.4 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9098, 4917, 2200

Auto

63.7 24%

Teleop

155.1 58%

Endgame

50.4 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6978, 8764, 11002

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6978, 8764, 11002

Auto

10.6 14%

Teleop

41.1 56%

Endgame

22.0 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.57 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score288.4pts

Blue projected score70.5pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 217.9
Score range: 34–324
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 469 vs event baseline 198.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

574.4Season APEX246.4

63.7Auto10.6

155.1Teleop41.1

50.4Endgame22

38Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	10
teleop	187	78
endgame	45	48
foul	0	15
total	318	151

Result

Final score

318 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 55 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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