Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

150.39 – 183.24

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 42.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 322.2 ±11

10554Team VIPER

Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 72.22Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 40.8Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11428Horns of Steel

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 37.37Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 375.4 ±9.8

7200Banting Robotics

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 48.02Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 120.19Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 15.03Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10554, 1229, 11428

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10554, 1229, 11428

Auto

30.2 22%

Teleop

60.4 44%

Endgame

46.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7200, 7902, 4327

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7200, 7902, 4327

Auto

32.5 18%

Teleop

101.3 57%

Endgame

43.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score150.4pts

Blue projected score183.2pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.9
Score range: 114–219
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 279 vs event baseline 202.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

322.2Season APEX375.4

30.2Auto32.5

60.4Teleop101.3

46.3Endgame43.3

34Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	31
teleop	45	141
endgame	16	26
foul	0	0
total	81	198

Result

Final score

81 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 42.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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