Qualification · Qualification 40
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
147.47 – 129.99
55%45%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
161 – 91
Prediction correct · off by 26.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 397.9 ±11.1
Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 157.05Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 2.6Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 42.8Event APEX -12.18Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330.6 ±11
Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 114.63Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 88.7Event APEX 27.68Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 49.5Event APEX -12.32Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5406, 3560, 6135
57
/ 100 compatProjected
147.5 pts
~1.8 RP (district)
Teams: 5406, 3560, 6135
Auto
36.1 25%
Teleop
77.2 52%
Endgame
33.9 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 7%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9098, 6632, 11002
49
/ 100 compatProjected
130 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 9098, 6632, 11002
Auto
29.6 24%
Teleop
66.3 53%
Endgame
28.5 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 7%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.51
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score147.5pts
Blue projected score130pts
Red win probability55%
Event bonus sample150alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 55%, blue 52%
Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 8%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 17.5
- Score range
- 93–184
- Upset likelihood
- 45%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
397.9Season APEX330.6
36.1Auto29.6
77.2Teleop66.3
33.9Endgame28.5
88Consistency4
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 42 | 28 |
| teleop | 81 | 28 |
| endgame | 38 | 25 |
| foul | 0 | 10 |
| total | 161 | 91 |
Result
Final score
161 – 91
Prediction correct · off by 26.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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