Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

116.49 – 346.43

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

122 – 352

Prediction correct · off by 5.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 292.5 ±11

3560MechaWolves

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX -2.23Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 71.38Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 47.34Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 681.7 ±9.8

10554Team VIPER

Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 48.52Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 245.71Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 52.2Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3560, 5032, 1229

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3560, 5032, 1229

Auto

24.9 23%

Teleop

51.6 47%

Endgame

33.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10554, 1114, 4917

/ 100 compat

Projected

346.4 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10554, 1114, 4917

Auto

58.4 17%

Teleop

213.9 62%

Endgame

71.3 21%

Strengths

· 1114 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.5pts

Blue projected score346.4pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -229.9
Score range: 76–386
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 474 vs event baseline 220.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

292.5Season APEX681.7

24.9Auto58.4

51.6Teleop213.9

33.2Endgame71.3

24Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	65
teleop	61	224
endgame	34	63
foul	0	0
total	122	352

Result

Final score

122 – 352

Prediction correct · off by 5.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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