Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

54.48 – 173.9

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

25 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 176.2 ±11

9659Vanier Vikings

Season APEX 82Event APEX 37.54Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11362RoBumpers

Season APEX 18.5Event APEX -3.62Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 20.56Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 357.6 ±10.4

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 78.32Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 43.73Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6978QuickStrike Niagara

Season APEX 120Event APEX 51.85Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9659, 11362, 4308

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9659, 11362, 4308

Auto

8.3 19%

Teleop

22.9 53%

Endgame

12.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5032, 4917, 6978

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5032, 4917, 6978

Auto

29.7 18%

Teleop

109.0 66%

Endgame

27.6 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.83 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score54.5pts

Blue projected score173.9pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -119.4
Score range: 17–211
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 209 vs event baseline 206.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

176.2Season APEX357.6

8.3Auto29.7

22.9Teleop109

12.2Endgame27.6

20Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	25
teleop	4	105
endgame	5	54
foul	10	0
total	25	184

Result

Final score

25 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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