Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

232.56 – 68.98

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

289 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 31.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 442.4 ±9.8

2852DM Robotics

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 65.65Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10554Team VIPER

Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 66.28Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 100.63Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222.8 ±11.7

6162Cap Alpaca

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX -13.96Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10167Jeunes Sans Frontières

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 42.84Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 40.1Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2852, 10554, 4907

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2852, 10554, 4907

Auto

29.2 13%

Teleop

137.0 62%

Endgame

56.0 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6162, 10167, 1229

/ 100 compat

Projected

69 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6162, 10167, 1229

Auto

21.7 40%

Teleop

21.4 39%

Endgame

11.4 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.42 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score232.6pts

Blue projected score69pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 163.6
Score range: 32–270
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 351 vs event baseline 208.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

442.4Season APEX222.8

29.2Auto21.7

137Teleop21.4

56Endgame11.4

66Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	14
teleop	150	32
endgame	79	11
foul	5	5
total	289	62

Result

Final score

289 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 31.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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