Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

222.45 – 178.71

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

189 – 199

Prediction missed · off by 26.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 302.7 ±10.4

2852DM Robotics

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 68.8Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 128.77Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 24.88Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 459.1 ±11.2

6162Cap Alpaca

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX -13.71Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 151.28Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 41.14Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2852, 7902, 4308

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2852, 7902, 4308

Auto

35.9 15%

Teleop

135.6 58%

Endgame

61.7 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6162, 5406, 4917

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6162, 5406, 4917

Auto

52.2 34%

Teleop

87.2 57%

Endgame

14.3 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score222.5pts

Blue projected score178.7pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.7
Score range: 142–259
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 388 vs event baseline 206.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

302.7Season APEX459.1

35.9Auto52.2

135.6Teleop87.2

61.7Endgame14.3

72Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	40
teleop	87	109
endgame	37	45
foul	55	5
total	189	199

Result

Final score

189 – 199

Prediction missed · off by 26.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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