Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

210.46 – 450.37

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

178 – 317

Prediction correct · off by 82.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 444.7 ±10.4

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 112.11Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 85.01Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9062Critical Circuits

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 13.34Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 708.9 ±9.9

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 144.4Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 306.51Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6135Arctos

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX -0.54Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9098, 5032, 9062

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9098, 5032, 9062

Auto

49.9 25%

Teleop

105.5 53%

Endgame

43.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2200, 2056, 6135

/ 100 compat

Projected

450.4 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2200, 2056, 6135

Auto

98.1 23%

Teleop

266.0 62%

Endgame

67.4 16%

Strengths

· 2056 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.67 · Blue 2.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score210.5pts

Blue projected score450.4pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -239.9
Score range: 173–487
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 495 vs event baseline 205.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

444.7Season APEX708.9

49.9Auto98.1

105.5Teleop266

43.8Endgame67.4

0Consistency118

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	83
teleop	95	174
endgame	25	60
foul	15	0
total	178	317

Result

Final score

178 – 317

Prediction correct · off by 82.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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