Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

33.76 – 135.88

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

152 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 87.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 238.5 ±11

1229Tidal Shift

Season APEX 100Event APEX 5.49Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11362RoBumpers

Season APEX 18.5Event APEX -12.51Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6978QuickStrike Niagara

Season APEX 120Event APEX 40.78Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 266.8 ±11.6

7902Markham FireBirds

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 129.38Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11002Montcalm Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX -32.04Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11428Horns of Steel

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 38.54Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1229, 11362, 6978

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1229, 11362, 6978

Auto

3.6 17%

Teleop

12.0 57%

Endgame

5.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7902, 11002, 11428

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7902, 11002, 11428

Auto

15.5 13%

Teleop

43.3 36%

Endgame

60.4 51%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.93 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score33.8pts

Blue projected score135.9pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -102.1
Score range: -3–173
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 344 vs event baseline 207.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

238.5Season APEX266.8

3.6Auto15.5

12Teleop43.3

5.4Endgame60.4

104Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	33
teleop	76	114
endgame	45	45
foul	0	0
total	152	192

Result

Final score

152 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 87.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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