Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

67.34 – 57.24

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

34 – 51

Prediction missed · off by 19.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 208.4 ±12.2

6135Arctos

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 13.2Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6632Northview Robotics

Season APEX 88.7Event APEX 35.66Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8764Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 18.48Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267 ±9.8

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 15.52Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 18.04Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10167Jeunes Sans Frontières

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 23.68Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6135, 6632, 8764

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6135, 6632, 8764

Auto

9.7 18%

Teleop

25.0 45%

Endgame

20.3 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4327, 4308, 10167

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4327, 4308, 10167

Auto

10.7 19%

Teleop

33.7 60%

Endgame

11.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score67.3pts

Blue projected score57.2pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.1
Score range: 17–107
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 85 vs event baseline 220.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

208.4Season APEX267

9.7Auto10.7

25Teleop33.7

20.3Endgame11.6

25Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	10
teleop	19	28
endgame	5	13
foul	5	0
total	34	51

Result

Final score

34 – 51

Prediction missed · off by 19.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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