Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

301.82 – 322.95

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

388 – 343

Prediction missed · off by 53.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 577.3 ±11.2

7200Banting Robotics

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 36.6Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 298.88Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6162Cap Alpaca

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX -33.66Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 630.9 ±9.3

6632Northview Robotics

Season APEX 88.7Event APEX 25.9Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 145.18Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 151.87Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7200, 2056, 6162

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7200, 2056, 6162

Auto

75.9 26%

Teleop

179.8 63%

Endgame

31.5 11%

Strengths

· 2056 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6632, 2200, 5406

/ 100 compat

Projected

323 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6632, 2200, 5406

Auto

72.8 24%

Teleop

172.5 57%

Endgame

59.2 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score301.8pts

Blue projected score323pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.1
Score range: 266–359
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 731 vs event baseline 201.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

577.3Season APEX630.9

75.9Auto72.8

179.8Teleop172.5

31.5Endgame59.2

29Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	97	84
teleop	237	141
endgame	49	93
foul	5	25
total	388	343

Result

Final score

388 – 343

Prediction missed · off by 53.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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