Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

183.2 – 106.88

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

204 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 21.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 455.5 ±9.3

5032The Falcons

Season APEX 117.6Event APEX 88.03Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX -6.51Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4907Thunderstamps

Season APEX 210.5Event APEX 101.68Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245.1 ±12.2

8764Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 21.46Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3560MechaWolves

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 19.4Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2852DM Robotics

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 66.02Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5032, 4327, 4907

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5032, 4327, 4907

Auto

39.1 22%

Teleop

109.3 62%

Endgame

26.9 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8764, 3560, 2852

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8764, 3560, 2852

Auto

18.4 15%

Teleop

61.5 50%

Endgame

42.7 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.15 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score183.2pts

Blue projected score106.9pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 76.3
Score range: 71–219
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 333 vs event baseline 202.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

455.5Season APEX245.1

39.1Auto18.4

109.3Teleop61.5

26.9Endgame42.7

0Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	24
teleop	135	74
endgame	24	31
foul	0	0
total	204	129

Result

Final score

204 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 21.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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